Diving Deep: Sacramento Republic 0-0 Birmingham Legion

OK, this is rather later than normal. That’s partly due to the holiday weekend and work commitments. On the other hand, we haven’t had much of a chance to do extensive analytical work at all lately, so this is us getting back on the bus. And before you ask, I know that’s not Sacramento in the lead shot. It’s just the best recent shot I have of Jake Rufe who is central to this post!

Anyway, it will come as a shock to absolutely no one that the Legion has been having trouble scoring this season. In fact, at 0.82 goals per game the Three Sparks are dead last in the entire league in scoring. And that’s giving them credit for two own goals in their favor (which would be tied for second on the Legion scoring chart with Stefano Pinho). With 9 total goals and only seven earned goals, the Legion scored 1 more goal in the two Open Cup games than they have in 11 league games.

At the other end, the Legion is doing much better. At 14 goals allowed, the team is tied with Memphis 901 and San Antonio for 10th overall (6th in the Eastern Conference). And bear in mind that 8 of those goals came in two games. Other than that, the Legion has allowed more than 1 goal just once (in the 2-2 draw with Tulsa) and has posted four clean sheets. And two of those goals were penalties.

Indeed, in the most recent run of three games, the Three Sparks allowed just one goal to high-quality opposition: Tampa Bay, Charleston and Sacramento. And they probably got stiffed in the Charleston game on what looked to this writer like a clear penalty call, but that’s another issue.

So, it seems that one problem has been solved and another still needs work.

Let’s look at the solved problem first: defense.

The big key to this is the deployment of Jake Rufe. He has been played in several spots this season, but with the addition of right back Derek Dodson last week he was really able to shine in a right defensive mid position. Sitting in that slot in the 4-3-3, which seems likely to be the formation of choice going forward, he not only had a very solid defender behind him but was also playing alongside Kobe Hernandez-Foster at central mid. Kobe has fast proven his value on this team and is probably better suited to the defensive pivot role than AJ Paterson, who was moved to left back, with Dawson McCartney up to a wingback position ahead of him.

Partnering Dodson and Parerson with Phanuel Kavita and Alex Crognale makes for a massive back line. Dodson is the smallest of them at just 6’0″, but he has speed and experience. He also played with AJ at the Battery last season, so the decision to put them both at full back makes a ton of sense. Established communication makes for faster responses. That’s not to say that the Legion defense was weak before Dodson’s arrival; indeed between them Matt van Oekel and Fernando Delgado have faced just 47 shots in 11 games (4.3 per game); everything else has been handled by the defenders or was off target. That works out to a save percentage of 70.2%; not bad. Against Sacramento, who managed just 10 shots total, MVO had to make just one save (as did Danny Vitiello, unfortunately. Interestingly, both saves made it to the Save of the Week poll).

But in order to get to the back line, you have to get past the midfield first. And that’s where Jake’s recent shift comes in. In fact, if you look at his stats against Sacramento, he made just one defensive action – a clearance. Against Charleston the prior week and playing in a similar role (the attacking half of a double pivot) he had none. This works because the Legion is playing a mid-block/high-press system. This kept both Charleston and Sacramento at bay. That’s especially true of SacRep in the first half:

Sacramento playing from left to right in this heatmap. Very limited penetration into the attacking half, and absolutely none through the middle. The Legion let up a bit in the second half, but not by much. Now let’s put up Jake’s personal heatmap:

Going the opposite way, of course. This is also for the full game; a single player’s heatmap for 45 minutes doesn’t really show you much. What this indicates is that Jake was given license to roam all over the midfield, rather like what we are used to seeing Enzo Martinez do. It also explains how he was able to get into that wrestling match with Juan Sebastian Herrera on the left side late in the game. Dawson McCartney in contrast stayed almost exclusively on the left. So Sacramento was put in the position of having to constantly adapt to a very fluid Legion midfield. Not so easy to do on the fly.

Moreover, when you combine this with a 3-man front pressing ridiculously high, it makes for a very tough time getting anywhere out of your own half. Being constantly hassled by as many as 6 men restricts the number of passing lanes. It can also lead to errors, which is what the Legion are hoping for.

Which brings us to the scoring issues. It’s not as if the Legion isn’t shooting at all. The team’s 154 shots ranks 6th in the league. Which also means its conversion rate of just 8% is the worst in the league. Per American Soccer Analysis, the team’s xG for the season to date is 13.98, 5th lowest in the league. Even so, that’s double the goals the Three Sparks have actually produced. An extra 7 goals would be good enough for 5th in the East and 6th overall (tied with Sacramento, oddly enough).

What this says is that the Legion is creating decent scoring chances but not finishing them. Against Sacramento that’s actually on Jake of all people, whose shot was the only one Danny Vitiello had to save. Well, not really, that’s not precisely his job. Stefano had a golden opportunity to score right before he was taken off and blew it. He knew it too. Losing one striker just 60-odd minutes into the season also doesn’t help. Mohamed Buya Turay still isn’t back after looking very promising in preseason and that one game. That 4-bagger in the Open Cup aside, Stefano is not a very reliable scorer. Enzo is doing his job, naturally, and Preston Tabort Etaka is to my mind being underused. As are Diba Nwegbo and Prosper Kasim.

Frankly, there is no good reason why the Legion isn’t scoring. ut whatever the problem is, they need to figure it out quickly. This weekend’s tilt against El Paso Locomotive might be a good opportunity to get that done.