Week 21 Preview: all you need to know

First things first: I know we haven’t posted about the two games from last week. That’s partly on purpose, partly because it’s been a weird week. However, I will be reviewing both of those alongside this week’s game in a mega Diving Deep post coming up next week.

The most important part

Kaylor Hodges and I guested yesterday on this week’s preview edition of the Orange & Black Soccercast. You can watch and/or listen to that on YouTube at this link. That will give you a pretty good idea of what to expect from tomorrow’s home game against Orange County (6:30pm, ESPN+). Here are the main points:

1. Both teams have been suffering badly from the injury bug. In particular, both OC and the Legion have been going through goalkeepers at an alarming rate. The Legion has used 5 so far this season, OC has used 3. That includes an emergency signing last week, Tomas Gomez, a Mexico-born American whom they got on loan from Real Salt Lake’s MLSNP side Real Monarchs. He made 4 saves against San Antonio and looked fairly good in the process. The biggest name likely to be absent from OC tomorrow is Brian Iloski.
2. This will likely be decided by who has the better yutes. As I noted in the podcast, the Legion has been adding some very young players this season who have been stepping big time. Even so, the Three Sparks remain the 4th oldest roster in the USL Championship. OC in contrast has the 4th youngest. In particular, right winger Bryce Jamison (18 years old) has played in all 20 games this season, averaging 52 minutes. He has 4 goals and 1 assist to his name. He is extremely dangerous.
3. We discussed Birmingham’s abysmal shot conversion rate. The Legion has taken 296 shots, an average of 14.8 a game. That’s good enough for 4th in the league. Per the league’s own rankings, the Three Sparks are tied for the worst conversion rate at just 10%, which seems off as the actual conversion rate is 7.4% (22 goals). That would be the solo worst in the league. Orange County have taken the fewest shots in the league at 168 (8.4 per game) and have scored 25 goals for a conversion rate of 14.9% (the league has them at 18%, tied for 4th). That suggests a massive difference in style (profligacy vs. selectivity) and could have a major bearing on the result.
4. Playing up the middle versus employing the wings. The Legion has serious strength in the middle in Kobe-Hernandez-Foster, but despite that and a historical preference going up Route 1, the crossing game has become far more active and effective. Look for the Legion to pour it in from outside.
5. Kaylor noted that Alex Crognale may be absent due to the impending birth of his first child. Per Alex’s own posts on X, his wife will be induced some time next week, so unless the unexpected happens he should be available tomorrow. Next week’s game is against Hartford (at home) so he may not miss that either, but if he does that’s far more preferable.

Prediction: I called it a 1-1 draw in the podcast and see no reason to amend that. A team that can’t score against a team that can’t shoot.

Best of the rest

There are three games tonight in the Championship and tomorrow all but one game overlap with the Legion game and the one that doesn’t starts immediately afterwards (it’s El Paso v. New Mexico so probably not that interesting). So fire up the replay machine. Here are our selections for the week:

Colorado Springs Switchbacks v. Las Vegas Lights (Friday, 8:00pm, ESPN+)

This will be #5 v. #6 in the West, separated by tiebreakers. The Switchbacks lost to the Legion 1-2 two weeks ago, of course, and lost to Lousiville by the same margin last week. Las Vegas are flying high right now on an 8-game unbeaten streak and a 3-game win streak. They are also working on two weeks’ rest. The opposite fixture in Las Vegas just over a month ago ended 3-3. This one could be very entertaining.

Detroit City v. Sacramento Republic (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN+)

Detroit are tied on points with the Legion but trail on tiebreakers. SacRep are 2nd in the West, 3 points behind New Mexico but on 2 more games. They absolutely need to win this one to stay in touch and obviously Legion fans want Detroit to drop points. Detroit’s only win in the last 5 games was 4-0 over…Miami. Sacramento just beat up on Oakland 5-2.

Rhode Island v. North Carolina (Saturday, 6:30pm, ESPN+)

These two teams are straddling the playoff line in the East on a 2-point gap. Rghody is on a tear, having won 4 of its last 5 and scoring like it’s going out of style. They are also just 3 points behind the Legion and were off last week. North Carolina will have a tough assignment here to keep in contention.

Tampa Bay Rowdies v. Charleston Battery (Saturday, 6:30pm, ESPN+)

Probably the game of the week. Two Eastern strongmen going at it. The Rowdies are looking to close the gap on the top two; they are 8 points behind Charleston and 6 points behind Louisville, but both trailing teams have 2 games in hand on the Battery. Additionally, the Battery had that odd morning game on Wednesday in Loudoun. They won 2-1 in a very close decision but should be a bit tired.

Back in the Old Country

Birmingham City’s preparations for the upcoming League One season are moving ahead fast. They beat fellow League One team Shrewsbury Town 2-0 last Saturday and then more impressively on Wednesday, in a memorial game for club legend Trevor Francis, who died that day last year, they beat Scottish powerhouse Glasgow Rangers 2-1. The team turns it up a notch tomorrow with a double-header, splitting the team and visiting both Walsall (7:00am) and Aldershot Town (8:00am). Walsall are in League Two, Aldershot in the National League. The preseason will end next Saturday against Championship side West Bromwich Albion (9:00am). The regular season starts August 10th against Reading (11:30am, which should be televised in the US on the CBS family of channels).

Most importantly, the Blues have been splashing the cash recently. Just prior to the Rangers game, the team had added 7 new players and in doing so had spent more than almost all the Championship teams, let alone the League One teams. Right after that game they announced another addition, striker Alfie May from Charlton Athletic. Terms of the deals are not always clear but estimates are that they have spent $15.3 million. Not surprisingly, a number of prediction sites – and perhaps most importantly the bookmakers – are showing the Blues as League One winners.

(Updated to correct Bryce Jamison’s statistics)