Week 29 Preview: all you need to know

Well, last weekend started off pretty well but ended in disaster. Other results didn’t entirely go in the Legion’s favor either, but the Three Sparks only dropped 1 spot to 6th. The schedule going forward means that a home playoff spot is not out of reach, not by a long shot. But the team will need to make the most out of a fairly soft schedule. After this week they have the Pittsburgh Riverhounds (away), North Carolina (home), the Las Vegas Lights (home), Indy Eleven (away) and the Oakland Roots (away). The other teams in the chase have about the same degree of difficulty (Detroit, Rhode Island, Pittsburgh and Indy all play Miami, for example), so it’s quite a race to the finish.

The most important part

The™ Miami FC is now three games from tying the most losses in a USL Championship season¹26, Antigua Barracuda, 2013. The Barracuda lost every game it played that year – one of only 6 teams to achieve that in soccer ever – but they also played every game away.. In addition to the opponents listed above they also have to play Louisville City so they have a pretty good chance of setting a new record.

Yes, they are historically bad. Their record is 3-23-2 for a meager 11 points and have scored just 25 goals while allowing 66. The third win (1-0 over Monterey Bay August 31st) was their first since April 27th when they beat San Antonio 2-1. They also beat the Colorado Springs Switchbacks 2-0 in week 1, which didn’t seem like a big deal at the time but now is clearly their best game of the year. The 2 draws were with Orange County and Loudoun United (both 2-2). Before the Monterey Bay game they put up an impressive 10-game losing streak.

Their best player – by far – is striker Frank Lopez. He has 7 goals and 3 assists to his credit, leading the club in both categories. The 29-year-old Cuban has been in the USL Championship since 2018 with a number of clubs, most recently the Rio Grande Valley Toros. Chances are he will be with yet another club next season as there is a pretty good chance Miami will fold after the end of the season. It is likely there will be stiff competition for his services; 19 goals over 3 seasons for relatively poor teams is a pretty good record. His playing style is reminiscent of Josef Martinez, whom locals may know from his time at Atlanta United (he moved on to Inter Miami but is now at CF Montréal). That is to say, he is small but fast and plays more or less as a false 9. He is very much an opportunistic goalpoacher.

The only other player of any consequence on the roster is Allen Gavilanes who joined them from the Greenville Triumph this season. He has 5 goals.

All that being said, note that the Legion only beat this team 1-0 in Miami back in April. Also, both teams have a 1-4-0 record over the last 5 games. The Legion;s scoring has been marginally better at 4-10 v. 2-11. The Three Sparks will need all its weapons firing to ensure victory.

Prediction: And victory they will get. Anything less will be a catastrophe and a major embarrassment. The Three Sparks will not allow that to happen. Again.

Best of the rest

In addition to the Saturday schedule, there are two other games of interest on Sunday. It should also be noted that the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, who slipped back below the playoff line as a result of last weekend’s Loudoun United win over the Three Sparks, are idle this week, having already played 29 games. So they can only watch and hope for favorable results. However, after their week off they play the Legion at home next Saturday.

In addition to the key games discussed below there’s one other big matchup on the schedule: Charleston Battery v. Tampa Bay Rowdies (Saturday, 6:30pm, ESPN+). That’s #2 v. #3 in the East, not as critical as the other games but a Tampa Bay loss puts the #3 spot in reach for several teams.

Hartford Athletic v. Oakland Roots (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN+)

Hartford have actually moved back into playoff contention. They sit in 10th, just a point behind Pittsburgh and 2 points out of the playoffs. A win means they pass Pittsburgh; a draw keeps them behind Pittsburgh on the 3rd tiebreaker.  A win puts them potentially level on points with Rhode Island and Loudoun, who both hold the tiebreaker advantage. Oakland have been stumbling lately and represent a tasty target.
Best outcome: Oakland win, about 50/50.

North Carolina FC v. Indy Eleven (Saturday, 6:30pm, ESPN+)

North Carolina is a point behind Hartford but with a game in hand. A win likewise gets them past Pittsburgh (who have played two more games). They followed a strong showing against Lou City (losing 6-4) and the shellacking of Oakland (5-0) with a poor 0-3 loss to Memphis. Indy reversed their slide last week with a 3-1 win over El Paso Locomotive, but that’s hardly an impressive feat against the West’s bottom team. A draw here keeps them ahead of the Legion on tiebreakers if the Three Sparks win.
Best outcome: North Carolina win, I’d say about 75/25.

Rhode Island v. FC Tulsa (Saturday, 6:30pm, CBS Sports Golazo Network)

Rhode Island suffered back-to-back losses for the first time ever, going down 0-1 in Orange County this past week. That kept them a point back of the Legion and tied on points with Loudoun, but holding the tiebreaker although Loudoun has a game in hand. A win and an Indy loss puts them level on points, but keeps Rhody out of the home playoff spots on tiebreakers regardless of other results. That same OC win tipped Tulsa below the playoff line but the two are tied on points with San Antonio and it’s a key race as well.
Best outcome: Tulsa win, probably 25/75.

Detroit City v. Louisville City (Sunday, 2:00pm, ESPN2)

Everyone else will obviously be looking for a Lou City win here. They are in 4th, two points up on Indy and 4 points up on the Legion. So only Indy can catch them this week (and with a game in hand). After three poor results (a loss to Tulsa and draws with Hartford and El Paso) they righted the ship with a big 1-0 win over New Mexico United. can they beat both conference leaders back-to-back?
Best outcome: Lou City win, 90/10.

New Mexico United v. Loudoun United (Sunday, 3:00pm, ESPN+)

New Mexico continue to lead the West with a healthy 10-point margin after beating #2 Sacrament Republic Wednesday evening. They may be tired. Still, they will be looking to avoid a second straight loss to Eastern teams after last week’s 0-1 loss to Detroit. Loudoun will be wanting to follow up last week’s win with a repeat and potentially move up as high as 5th (they can pass Indy on tiebreakers).
Best outcome: New Mexico win. 60/40.

Back in the Old Country

Monday’s Birmingham-Wrexham game did not disappoint. It got off to a poor start for the Blues as Wrexham scored in under 3 minutes, but after that it was all home team. Jay Stansfield scored on his first two attempts and Tomoki Iwata (another new acquisition, just signed from Glasgow Celtic) added a third as the Blues cruised to a 3-1 win ending Wrexham’s 4-game shutout streak. It was marred late by a near all-out brawl – instigated in large part by Wrexham star Paul Mullin – and Blues captain Kristian Bielik was shown two yellows. The game also featured Tom Brady schmoozing with David Beckham and Rob McElhenney not looking very happy. City are now joint top with Wrexham and Charlton Athletic, but in second on goal difference but with a game in hand. After just 5 games the Blues are one of only two undefeated teams in League One, the other being Stockport County.

Birmingham plays at 17th-place Rotherham United Saturday (9:00am, no US TV).