Week 30 Preview: all you need to know

The Legion got a vital win last week to stay in the home playoff hunt. This week’s game will be a much tougher assignment.

The most important part

Much tougher, you say? The Pittsburgh Riverhounds are just one place above Miami in the standings. Well, yeah, but there’s a 24-point gap and Pittsburgh is only 2 points out of the playoffs. They get over the line with a win, a Hartford Athletic loss or draw, a Loudoun United loss and a North Carolina loss or draw. At least, I think that’s the only way it happens. The USL tiebreakers are mind-boggling. It also doesn’t help that they have played one more game than Loudoun, who are sitting in that final playoff spot.

All of which is to say that this is a game (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN+) the home team cannot really afford to lose. Their remaining schedule is a mixed bag though: they have both Miami and El Paso, the two cellar-dwellers, but also the Charleston Battery and a crunch game with Loudoun.

They will also be buoyed by the recent 3-0 here in the Magic City. True, they were helped by an under-strength and under-performing Legion squad and being allowed to get away with all sorts of cynical dirty tricks by the refereeing crew (not just fouls but blatant timewasting as well), but still. That was also their second-best result of the season behind a 5-0 pasting of the Oakland Roots. Since that game they drew 1-1 with Indy Eleven, beat Rhode Island 2-0 and lost 1-2 to the Tampa Bay Rowdies. And then they had last weekend off.

Edward Kizza remains the guy to stop with 7 goals on the season. His brace against the Legion were the last goals he scored though, so at least three teams have figured him out.

The Legion will also need to figure out how to get through that irritating 3-man centerback formation. Further, the Highmark Stadium field is fairly narrow; about 72 yards as far as I can tell, just 2 yards above the minimum. Which means that 3-man back line doesn’t have t cover much ground and teams favoring wide play are at a disadvantage,  The Three Sparks have struggled with such defenses all season and even against Miami last week. The good news is that the team now has more attacking options than it has had in quite a while. The 4-3-2-1 used last time out wasn;t overly successful, but under the circumstances pushing up the middle may be the best option this week. A 4-3-1-2 may also be in play, with perhaps Tyler Pasher and Darwin Matheus up top with Enzo Martinez behind them. If Darwin is 90 minutes fit, that is.

Also an issue is the health of the back line. Phanuel Kavita is likely out and AJ Paterson may not be up to starting again. We will have to see.

Prediction: I’m beginning to think I shouldn’t make predictions any more. Jinx and all that. However, in this case I think the stakes are way too high for both teams. I’m expecting a very cagey game struck largely in the middle third. I’m going with a draw, low-scoring if not 0-0.

Best of the rest

One game this week is already in the bag (Orange County beat Phoenix Rising 2-0 Wednesday). There are games Saturday and Sunday this weekend. Right now the Legion cannot improve their position but could fall to 7th.

Indy Eleven v. The™ Miami FC (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN+)

This one is probably the most dangerous for the Three Sparks on the schedule. Obviously, Miami is horrifically bad. With a win Indy would go to 43 points and would pass the Legion if they don’t win. That being said, Indy has been pretty bad lately too.  The Eleven’s only win in the last 6 games was over El Paso, who are bottom of the West. They are vulnerable, but are they Miami vulnerable? Moreover, Indy has a game in hand over the Legion. We need them to drop points.
Best outcome: Miami win, maybe 20/80 at best.

Tampa Bay Rowdies v. Hartford Athletic (Saturday, 6:30pm, ESPN+)

Hartford is sitting in 9th but is tied on points with Loudoun United, except they have played one more game. However, they have been playing very well lately and have morphed from a potential spoiler to a playoff contender with no losses in the last 7 games and a win over Louisville City in that stretch. Tampa Bay remains third, but their injury-plagued defense has made that position shaky of late. They lead Detroit City by a point and are 5 ahead of the Legion but right look to be the more likely to drop out of the home playoff spots.
Best outcome: Hartford win, about 50/50.

Update: this game has been postponed due to Hurricane Helene. With the Rowdies idle, Detroit passes them in the standings with a draw or a win.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks v. Loudoun United (Saturday, 7:00pm, CBS Sports Golazo Network)

The Switchbacks’ impressive win streak ended last week in the surprising 1-1 draw with El Paso. They are a point up on Sacramento Republic for second in the West but SacRep has a game in hand. This one is obviously important for them. Loudoun, for their part, need to keep Hartford at bay and to stay within arm’s length of Indy and Rhode Island, who are both 3 points above them (they have a game in hand over Rhody).
Best outcome: Colorado Springs win, probably 75/25.

San Antonio v. Rhode Island (Saturday, 7:30pm, ESPN+)

San Antonio can do everyone else in the East a big favor in this one. The trouble is, they have been pretty bad this season, including an embarrassing 0-4 waxing by Phoenix last week. Even so, they are not out of the playoffs yet. Rhode Island broke a two-game losing streak last week in a not particularly impressive 2-1 win in Tulsa and need to get a more positive result under their belts. They sit 3 points back of the Legion, tied on points with Indy but on equal games with the Three Sparks.
Best outcome: San Antonio win, 25/75.

Monterey Bay Union v. Detroit City (Saturday, 9:00pm, ESPN+)

Detroit sit in fourth and have a healthy 4-point lead over the Legion. Moreover, they are playing extremely well, which is why Tampa looks more vulnerable. After all, they just beat both conference leaders back-to-back. After that the Union should be a cakewalk. Monterey Bay has not won a game under new head coach Jordan Stewart yet. 10 games winless, in fact, and 5 games scoreless. Tough to see them ending that trend.
Best outcome: Monterey Bay win, 20/80 at best.

Back in the Old Country

Iwata and Stansfield nearly replicated their performance against Wrexham with a goal apiece to beat Rotherham United 2-0 last weekend. The Blues remain in second on goal difference behind Wrexham, but one less game and the GD divide is only one goal. Birmingham is now the only undefeated team in League One, which must be making their primary shirt sponsor Undefeated (a clothing brand) pretty happy. The team has two games this week and they are big tests for that record. First up is Charlton Athletic away (Saturday, 9:00am, no US TV) who are fourth. Then on Tuesday (1:45pm, no US TV) they host fifth-place Huddersfield Town. The Blues already beat Charlton 1-0 in the EFL Cup (and short-handed to boot) but this tilt will likely be a whole different matter. The CBS/Paramount preference for Wrexham is already getting a bit tiresome but anticipate better coverage of the Blues going forward if they continue to dominate.