Week 31 Preview: all you need to know

As in previous years, we dispense with the normal opponent photos as the season comes down to the final stretch in favor of a graphic showing the current playoff positioning. With 4 weeks left in the regular season, only one team has been eliminated – The™ Miami FC – who have now matched the USL Championship record for losses after losing 0-3 at Louisville City on Wednesday¹Technically, they already matched it at 25; the 26-loss season was in USL Pro which was officially 3rd division. Loudoun United in 2021 and New York Red Bull II in 2022 both had 25 losses. The previous record for a non-MLS2 team was 24 last year by Hartford Athletic..

El Paso avoided elimination this past weekend with a 1-0 win over North Carolina, which makes this week’s Legion game all the more interesting. The Locomotive can be eliminated this week with a loss, an Orange County win and a Phoenix Rising win or draw. Everyone else is very much in the running.

The most important part

North Carolina, in its return to the Championship, has been something of a mystery this season. Alternately they look good and bad. Last week they lost 0-1 at El Paso Locomotive. The previous week they beat Indy Eleven 2-0. Before that they lost 0-3 at Memphis 901. Then a crazy 5-0 home pasting of Oakland Roots and before that an even wilder 4-6 loss to Louisville City. 21 goals scored in their last 5 games.

The previous meeting ended a 1-1 draw in Cary. This time (Sunday, 5:00pm – a time change – on ESPN+) could be very different. For a start, North Carolina is a very poor road team, with a record of 2-9-3, the only wins being over Miami and Orange County. That should give the home team some encouragement to offset the ongoing injury issues the Three Sparks have been plagued with this year.

Not that the visitors are without threats, clearly. Evan Conway and Oalex Anderson both have 9 goals and Rafa Mentzingen and the long-standing USL journeyman Rodrigo da Costa have 5 each as well. Road goals have been a little harder to come by – 13 all year and 4 of those were in Miami. They will also be motivated, not just by their postseason chances, but also to give their home state something positive to think on. Fortunately, Cary was well out of Hurricane Helene’s path, but the western part of the state was of course very hard hit.

North Carolina usually plays in a 3-4-2-1, with either Conway or Anderson as the sole striker. Anderson sometimes drops back to the attacking mid position alongside da Costa. Mentzingen is a right winger. All four usually start so they have a lot of goalscoring capacity on the field. And at the back the Three Sparks are up against yet another triple centerback setup. They managed to find a path through in both the past two games and they will need to do it again. The wide Protective Stadium should assist in that, but overall it won’t be too much of an advantage; North Carolina plays at the equally wide WakeMed Soccer park.

As for the playoffs: they are currently 10th, with Hartford sitting a point above them and both of them with 5 games remaining. One of those is a head-to-head matchup. North Carolina also gets FC Tulsa, the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Las Vegas Lights. Not an easy path by any means, although they can certainly help the Legion out with a win over the Rowdies. However, that means this game is all the more critical for them.

The Legion’s injury woes continue unabated. Late yesterday the team announced the signing of J.P. Philpot under the emergency goalkeeper rule. Matt van Oekel is apparently injured again, which is not too surprising given the knock he took against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds last week. As far as I can tell, the former UNC shotstopper Philpot hasn’t played much during his stint in Spain with Rayo Vallecano and C.F. Motril other than at the developmental level. It would be somewhat amusing of his first true pro game were to be against his home state. It would also mean the Legion has used a total of 6 goalkeepers this year. Trevor Spangenberg will certainly be starting though unless he too is banged up.

Prediction: I have some reservations about this one. A lot will depend on how healthy the Legion back line is. If the home team has the services of at least one of Phanuel Kavita and A.J. Paterson, then a win should be the result. If not, I have absolutely no idea.

Best of the rest

The Legion game is the only one scheduled for Sunday and tonight’s game doesn’t involve any Eastern Conference teams (Phoenix Rising v. Monterey Bay Union, 9:30pm, CBS Sports Golazo Network), so you can track all of the key matchups Saturday starting at 3:00pm.

Charleston Battery v. Detroit City (Saturday, 3:00pm, ESPN+)

The biggest matchup of the entire weekend, pitting #2  against #3 in the East. Detroit is 11 points behind the Battery though so they can’t improve their position. The Detroit lead over Tampa Bay is only 2 points though and the Rowdies have a game in hand after last week’s postponement. Louisville is pretty much out of reach for Charleston, being 9 points clear at the top, so they have little to play for.
Best outcome: Tough to say. If the Legion doesn’t get a home playoff game, the better matchup is probably Tampa Bay rather than Detroit so the final positioning is totally up in the air. Still, a Charleston win can’t hurt, 80/20.

Hartford Athletic v. Loudoun United (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN+)

Loudoun is 8th, Hartford is 9th, separated by a point. Neither can catch the Legion this week, but both have a game in hand over the Legion. Hartford were idle last week (they were the Rowdies’ scheduled opponent) and have been playing well. Loudoun has been up and down and had a huge late comeback for a draw in Colorado Springs this past week. Could be an entertaining game.
Best outcome: A draw, most certainly. About 50/50.

Indy Eleven v. Louisville City (Saturday, 6:00pm, CBS Sports Golazo Network)

This is a pretty easy call. Lou City is way out of reach for anyone on the East except Charleston. Indy’s 4-0 win over Miami puts the Eleven 1 point above the Legion on one less game. Indy has just two wins in the last 7 games, both over the bottom teams in the two conferences. City recovered from its lackluster loss to Detroit with a 4-2 win over Memphis last week and should be ready for the short trip up I-65.
Best outcome: Lou City win, probably 80/20.

The Miami FC v. Pittsburgh Riverhounds (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN+)

As noted above, Miami is flirting with historic futility. After last week’s home draw with the Three Sparks the Riverhounds remain in 11th place, but just 2 points out of the playoffs. All is not lost. After this they finish with Charleston, Loudoun and El Paso Locomotive. That Loudoun game looms large as that’s one of the teams they need to pass. Further all three teams between them and the playoffs have a game in hand. A tough climb and this is a must-win
Best outcome: Miami win, 20/80 at a very generous best.

Rhode Island v. Tampa Bay Rowdies (Saturday, 6:30pm, ESPN+)

Another key matchup. Rhody leads the Legion by 1, Tampa by 4 (with a game in hand over both teams). Indy is tied on points with Rhode Island and also has a game in hand. Neither team can afford a loss here but impressive performances are lacking on both sides lately. Tampa’s remaining schedule is messy: Hartford, Louisville, North Carolina and Indy. All teams in contention. Rhode Island has Loudoun,m Charleston and Miami. Hmm.
Best outcome: Logically, a draw although we hardly want either team to gain any points. 50/50.

Back in the Old Country

The Blues got a bit of a shocking start to the weekend tilt against Peterborough United as a massive howler by goalkeeper Bailey Peacock-Farrell contributed to a 2-goal deficit. They came back in a hurry though as Willum Willumson scored, an own goal came off a deflected Jay Stansfield shot and Krystian Bielik rounded out the scoring for a 3-2 win. Wrexham drew 0-0 at Leyton Orient to put Birmingham City in sole possession of first with no losses and a game in hand. Even better, on Tuesday the Blues beat Huddersfield Town 1-0 on an Alfie May goal and Wrexham lost 0-1 to Stevenage. City are now 5 points clear at the top of the table with that game still in hand over Wrexham (but not over Mansfield Town who are 3rd on goal difference with Wrexham). Birmingham remains undefeated and also sports the best goal difference (+9) in League One.

Saturday’s game is at Charlton Athletic (9:00am, no US TV). Charlton started off well with a four-game win streak but have gone 0-4-1 since then to drop to 13th in the standings.