Week 33 Preview: all you need to know

We covered much of the situation in the Eastern Conference in a Diving Deep post yesterday, but there remains much to look at going into the weekend action. You should also know the league itself has given the Legion just 36% odds of making the playoffs. Not sure how they came up with that number but it seems low to me given that the Thre Sparks are tied with 3 other teams right now.

Also, that postponed Tampa Bay Rowdies-Hartford Athletic game has been rescheduled for this coming Wednesday, which is as late as they could possibly make it up. It will be played at IMG Academy in Brandenton, as will the Tampa season closer. IMG is about 50 miles from downtown Tampa and 30 miles from Al Lang Stadium. It has a 5,000-seat capacity (about 2,500 fewer than Al Lang), so the home field advantage is not lost.

In contrast to the extremely messy East, the Western Conference is finally beginning to shake out. Only three playoff spots remain unclaimed, and only San Antonio and FC Tulsa below the line are still in it. Tulsa is just a point from elimination and San Antonio have to get by Louisville City and Detroit City (both at home) to make up the 3-point deficit they currently face.

The most important part

One point. That’s all the Legion needed from its final home game to keep a home playoff spot possible, not to mention staying above the playoff line entirely with a margin over three other teams. They came very close a couple of times to doing that, but ultimately failed. And now they have a huge task to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time in their history. And they have to do it all on the road.

Playing Oakland next week seems like it should be a less daunting task. The Roots are above the playoff line in the West but in fact have a poorer record than the Legion (by just 1 point). They have just 1 point from the last 5 games as well. But they are just three points ahead of San Antonio, who have the tiebreak advantage. San Antonio have a tough schedule, but the Roots themselves face a high-flying Las Vegas Lights team this week and may well need a result against the Three Sparks. It could be a desperation game for both teams. So the Roots can’t be counted out and the Legion should not be looking past Indy.

This game in the Circle City (Saturday, 6:00pm, CBS Sports Golazo Network) is just as big for the hosts. The Eleven are in 4th but only by a point. They finish the season away against the Tampa Bay Rowdies, which should be a winnable game but they are not in a position to be taking chances. Amazingly, they have not clinched a playoff spot; all three teams below the playoff line can pass them as can Rhode Island and Tampa Bay above it. That’s how tight this season is.

They are also a highly unpredictable team. They made it to the semi-finals of the Open Cup but have been up and down since then. In the last 5 games they are 2-1-2. The loss was 0-2 to North Carolina, the wins 4-0 over The™ Miami FC and 1-0 over Loudoun United. The draws were 2-2 with Louisville and last week 0-0 with Detroit in what was a mind-numbingly boring game. Overall, not bad results, but not great either, other than the draw with Lou City.

Another issue is that Indy plays with a 3-4-3, a formation the Legion has had problems penetrating all year. They played a 3-1-4-2 in the June meeting here in Birmingham and the Legion managed just 1 shot on goal out of 15. Indy had 9 of 20. Still, they only won 1-0. That goal was scored by Jack Blake who now has 9 goals on the season, just 1 behind Augie Williams. And Sebastian Guenzatti, Elliot Collier and Maalique Foster all have 5 goals. They are not short of scoring options.

That 3-man defense is anchored usually by ex-Legionary Ben Ofeimu and also features Adrian Diz Pe (who was absent last week against Detroit due to red card) suspension), both of whom are quality players.

Prediction: There’s no doubt that this is going to be a tough assignment. Judging by recent Legion performances, there is little reason to be optimistic. Ultimately though I’m going with a draw as both teams have far too much to lose.

Best of the rest

Everybody plays on Saturday this week, so it’s a crowded schedule and there is a fair amount of overlap with the Legion game as a result. Keep an eye on your favorite score tracker (mine is FotMob, by the way).

Tampa Bay Rowdies v. North Carolina (4:00pm, ESPN+)

Originally this would have been the Rowdies’ home game in this series but it had to be moved to Cary, NC, which gives the visitors the home field advantage. Not that they likely needed it. The Rowdies have been sliding down the standings fairly steadily for a while, although they remain in 6th and need just 3 points to ice a playoff spot. But they will need to reverse that slide; one win and four losses in the last 5 games is not good. North Carolina is doing rather better, but has been on the upside and the downside of some crazy scores lately, including a 3-4 loss to Hartford last week that saw them almost come back from a 4-goal deficit. Sitting in that 4-team pack and in 9th pace place they obviously need the points more desperately than the Rowdies.
Best outcome: A draw has to be the best result for the Legion, although it would mean the Rowdies could earn no more than 1 point from the last 2 games if the Legion is to pass them. But North Carolina is the better team here. 30/70.

Loudoun United v. Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5:00pm, ESPN+)

This one is key. It’s the only remaining game on the schedule that involves two teams in that 42-point pack. Both sides are looking pretty good right now. The Riverhounds are coming off a 2-0 win over the Charleston Battery (who admittedly were resting a few players) and are top of that tied-up group. Loudoun are holding on to 8th place and got a decent 0-0 result against Rhode Island after a tough 0-1 loss to Indy Eleven which put their playoff hopes on hold for a week. This will be a tight contest between two very stingy defenses.
Best outcome: A draw, for everyone else concerned and probably very much on the cards. 60/40.

FC Tulsa v. Hartford Athletic (5:00pm, ESPN+)

Hartford bounced back from losing 0-2 to Loudoun with a 4-3 win over North Carolina this past weekend. They were also denied a clear goal that would have put them 5 goals up before they let the visitors back into the game. Sitting in 11th place but only 2 points out of the playoffs with 3 games to play they have a tough hill to climb. They should not be counted out yet though. They have 10 points from the last 5 games. The last three games are all on the road though. This first one is against a flailing Tulsa side who are, as mentioned above, on the brink of elimination.
Best outcome: A Tulsa win, but it’s pretty unlikely. 30/70.

Charleston Battery v. Rhode Island (6:30pm, ESPN+)

As noted above, the Battery essentially took the week off against Pittsburgh, resting, among others, Nick Markanich. That didn’t exactly do anyone else in the conference any favors. Will they do the same this week? Hard to tell, but they do not need to get complacent or enter the playoffs on a negative note. Rhody of course is in 5th place, 1 point behind Indy and in a very good position to take that last home playoff spot in their inaugural season (their last game is against Miami). They have 10 points from the last 4 games and are on a roll. Not to mention being highly motivated.
Best outcome: A Charleston win, although the Legion’s chances (or anyone else’s for that matter) of passing Rhode Island are slim. 50/50.

Back in the Old Country

Despite suffering its first loss of the league season two weeks ago and having last week’s game postponed due to international callups, Birmingham City remains top of League One with a 2-point margin and game in hand over 2nd-place Wrexham, although Mansfield Town is also 2 ints back but on equal games. This week’s game at Lincoln City (Saturday, 9:00am, no US TV) will be a bit of a test. Lincoln are in 5th and are similarly well-rested as they were Wrexham’s schedule opponent last week and therefore also got the international break off. Additionally, the Blues will be without captain Krystian Bielik for a few weeks and more importantly star scorer Jay Stansfield who picked up a knock while with England’s U21 team. Alfie May is available though, so the team is hardly without scoring options.

The Blues will be in action again Tuesday (1:45pm, no US TV) as they face Bolton Wanderers, who currently sit in 14th. And Paramount+ snubbing the best team in the league is getting a tad old. Birmingham City is not on the US TV schedule through at least November 3rd. They were to have been on last week before the postponement, and I get that there are 24 teams to cover, but if Wrexham can be on every week Birmingham deserves at least 2 games a month.