Week 34 Preview: all you need to know

Well, it comes down to this. The final weekend of the regular season and, for the Legion, the last weekend of the season entire. The league website is showing the Three Sparks as still not eliminated, but here at the Forge we don’t see how that can be. The Legion would need a win, a Pittsburgh Riverhounds loss, a North Carolina loss and a Hartford Athletic draw or loss to be tied on points for the last two Eastern Conference playoff spots. As far as we can tell, the team loses out to all and sundry on tiebreakers. The Legion, after three straight losses down the stretch, will miss out on the playoffs for the first time in its history.

Those two playoff spots are the only ones still up for grabs. The Western field is set, although only New Mexico United at the top of the conference has fixed its position. The other seven teams are still in a shuffle. In the East, Louisville City and the Charleston Battery are locked in; Detroit City and Indy Eleven have secured home games. The road spots are all still at issue.

The most important part

So what can we expect from this final game (Saturday, 9:00pm, ESPN+)?

The Oakland Roots have clinched a playoff spot and currently sit in 6th in the West. That’s the best they can do, but they could drop to 8th. Orange County can pass them with a draw and a Roots loss; both Orange County and Phoenix Rising can pass them with a win and a Roots draw or loss. So they do have a fair amount to play for.

They are a mercurial team. Going into last week’s game against a very strong Las Vegas Lights team they had just 1 point from their previous 6 games, scoring 1 goal and allowing 11. They won 3-2 over the Lights despite having only 22.6% possession and giving up an own goal. With that limited possession they managed 16 shots with 7 on target. Wild.

Despite being playoff-bound, they are only 2 points better than the Legion for the season. This should be an opportunity for the Three Sparks to end the season in a major key if not exactly on a high note. To do that they will need to corral striker Johnny Rodriguez. Rodriguez has 12 goals this season – including 2 last week – and is way out in front of the rest of the team; no one else on the roster has scored more than 2. That’s a pretty blatant single threat attack.

At the back they have Paul Blanchette in goal. He has managed just 4 clean sheets (Timothy Syrel has one more) this year as the Roots have given up 52 goals, more than anyone else except The™ Miami FC’s impressive 81 goals allowed. That is admittedly only one more than the Legion, and at the other end they have scored 37 goals, 2 fewer than the Three Sparks. This could be a low-scoring affair.

As to their formation, that is highly unpredictable. In the last 3 games they have used a 5-4-1, a 3-4-3 and a 4-2-3-1. Not sure what the thinking is other than maybe throwing everything against the wall and seeing what sticks. Which is not a great deal different than what the Legion have done this year.

Prediction: The Legion are on a 3-game losing streak, equalling the worst streak of the season back in August, although then they were outscored 0-6. At least this time they went 4-9, but 3 goals allowed per game is not good. Pride is on the line – and for several players probably their jobs. I’m going out on a limb and calling a Legion win.

Best of the rest

It being Decision Day, all games are on Saturday, so the schedule is crowded again. And although the Legion is essentially out of it, all the really interesting games are still in the East, since that is the more open of the two conferences. The Legion is also playing late out on the West Coast, so there is relatively little overlap. Here are our picks for the weekend:

Charleston Battery v. Loudoun United (5:00pm, ESPN+)

The Battery can’t improve or weaken their position; Loudoun have to win to have a shot at their first-ever playoff. Both teams are 1-2-2 over the last 5 games, but Charleston have been resting players and Loudoun have been underperforming. I expect the Battery to play its regular starters to shake off any rust that might have accumulated, so this should be quite an entertaining contest.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds v. El Paso Locomotive (6:00pm, CBS Sports Golazo Network)

Of all the teams potentially missing out on the payoffs, I want Pittsburgh to miss out the most. If anything, I detest the Riverhounds more than Memphis 901. Especially now that Area Code FC is no longer a conference rival. Unfortunately they are on a solid 3-game win streak, scoring 8 and allowing none. And of course their opponent is sitting right at the bottom the Western Conference. The Locomotive can pass Monterey Bay Union (and possibly FC Tulsa; they play each other this week) so they do have something to play for.

Tampa Bay Rowdies v. Indy Eleven (6:30pm, ESPN+)

The Rowdies broke their four-game losing skid on Wednesday with a wild 2-2 draw with Hartford, iceing a playoff spot. That, plus Indy’s win over the Legion last week, helped the Eleven to a home playoff spot. A Rowdies loss could send them to 8th in the East, which is almost as steep a drop as the Legion experienced. Watch this one if Schadenfreude is your style.

Rhode Island v. The Miami FC (7:00pm, ESPN+)

Rhody has a pretty good chance of holding on to the 5th spot here, and Miami of course is already writing itself into the history books. The Floridians will be playing their second game under interim head coach Brazilian Marcello Alves, having parted ways with Italian Antonio Nocerino. You may remember him from the game a few weeks also at Protective, where his sideline screaming could be heard pretty plainly. If not understood.

Back in the Old Country

In the good news department, Birmingham City continues to dominate in EFL League One. Last Saturday, after giving up a goal in just 33 seconds, City roared back to beat Lincoln City 3-1 without star scorer Jay Stansfield. On Tuesday the Blues comprehensively beat Bolton Wanderers 2-0, holding a massive 71% possession for the game and outshooting the visitors 18-8 and 5-1 on target. The goals were scored once again by Tomoki Iwata and the returning Jay Stansfield (from the penalty spot). Despite the prolific scoring, Stansfield is surprisingly only tied for 12th in the league right now with 4. But he did get a late start to his season and has only played 6 games to date.

That quick score didn’t impress Wrexham’s Paul Mullin, who scored in just 16 seconds in his first start of the year for the only goal in the Red Dragons’ 1-0 win over Rotherham. But they then drew 0-0 with Huddersfield Town on Tuesday. That put the Blues in a 4-point lead at the top of the table with a game still in hand.

This Saturday the team heads to Mansfield Town (at the ridiculously early time of 6:30am; no US TV). This is a big game – Mansfield sits in 4th right now just 5 points back.