Diving Deep: Louisville and Detroit

OK, so this is rather late in the day, but bloggers have real lives too and most of you were on spring break this week…

The past week was a crazy one for the Legion with three games being played over the course of seven days, thanks to the postponement of the Louisville City game by a day. Snadwiched between the two league games was the Open Cup game in Little Rock. That, obviously, ended disastrously. It was also an embarrassment for US Soccer given that the stream apparently got far more usage than anticipated and had nowhere near enough bandwidth, so much so that they had to create a whole extra stream. Analysis of that game is rendered a bit difficult as well given the lack of detailed statistical information (again, well done US Soccer). Suffice it to say that the Legion was technically dominant in the game other than on the scoreboard: 64% possession, 13 to 7 in shots (but 3 to 5 on target). That last seems a tad dubious, as for my money the main reason the Legion did not get a result was the Little Rock keeper Tomasz Wroblewski. Not only did he stop Lucca Dourado’s (poorly struck) penalty kick but he was an impenetrable block in front of goal. As his name suggests, he is Polish but has been in the US a good while. He played at Elon University the past two years while majoring in accounting (!) while also playing with the Rangers (although Elon is in North Carolina, nowhere near Little Rock). If being a CPA becomes too boring (as it should) he deserves a pro contract on that game alone.

Anyway. the Lou City and Detroit City games were much more successful as far as the Legion is concerned but still very flawed in execution. Although both games ended up draws, 2 points is really as much as the Three Sparks could have expected from the two games. Possibly better than expected, if anything. In theory, the two should have been very similar. The Legion came out in a 4-1-4-1 in both games and faced a 3-4-3 from both opponents (Detroit was officially a 3-4-1-2, but that’s more or less the same thing). Both opponents are notoriously stingy in defense and both were – and remain – undefeated and at the top of the Eastern Conference. They didn’t really play out that way although the Legion came from behind three times to get the shared points.

One major difference in the two games was the location. It’s not simply that the Louisville game was played at home versus the far less accommodating Keyworth Stadium in Detroit (fans, trains, etc.) , but the field at Keyworth is much narrower than at Protective. The sideline markings have been widened in the past few years (although you can still see the old markings) but there’s not much space around the playing area and the width is probably still under 70 yards. That changes the game meaningfully.

Still, the only points Birmingham has ever earned against Detroit have all been in those confines – a 2-1 win last June and this 2-2 draw. But how much did that field change the game? Well, let’s look first at the Legion’s average positions against Louisville:

The Legion is playing left to right here. The Dourado (#22) for Preston Tabort Etaka (#10) substitution was very late (there were only 2 minutes left) but it is clear there was an attacking intent behind it. Conversely, the Moses Mensah (#33) for Ramiz Hamouda (#4) move in the 67th minute looks to have been defensive in nature. Generally speaking, the formation was a very well-maintained 4-1-4-1, with Ronaldo Damus sitting very high as the true striker. Enzo Martinez was playing as the defensive mid and clearly held his ground. And everyone else was just as disciplined.

Now consider the Detroit positioning:

Playing right to left this time. There was a third substitution in this game – Finn Calloway came on for Preston, who had to leave the game – but that was again very late and had no strategic value. The first change was at half-time, Moses coming on for Dawson McCartney (#11). It is not clear if that related to an injury or not but it effectively created a 5-4-1 formation. Obviously that’s a defensive maneuver but still allows for counter-attacking opportunities, especially with a fullback as fast as Moses. It worked: Detroit had just 3 shots total in the second half as compared with 5 in the first; only one was on target and they failed to score in the second half. The Legion generated 6 shots in the second half (counting Stephen Carroll’s own goal, that is) using that counter effectively.

In the 67th minute Sebastian Tregarthen (#21) got his first minutes replacing Ethan Kos (#5). That essentially changed the formation back to what it started out as. His yellow card aside, Tregarthen looked to be very effective and should be useful going forward.

But look how much less organized the formations are and also how bunched up the positioning is. 5 players averaged inside the center circle with barely any penetration deeper than that. Detroit got much deeper into Legion territory, with Ben Morris, Jordan Adebayo-Smith and Sebastian Guenzatti all causing problems.

Now let’s take a look at something a bit busier:

This shows the Legion’s heatmaps for both games, with all the shots overlaid on top. The Lou City game is on the left; the Legion is playing towards the center of the graphic in both cases. What is immediately clear is that the Three Sparks had enormous difficulty getting into the opposing 18 in both games. That’s what 3 centerbacks will do to you. Much of the movement into the box in both games came from set pieces, corners especially. As a result a fair amount of the shooting came from distance. In Detroit 5 of the Legion’s 8 shots (not including the own goal) came from outside the 18 and 3 of 10 against Louisville. In Detroit the Legion got no shots at all inside the 6-yard box and only 2 against Louisville.

Lou City is known for playing a disciplined game and the Legion was able to match that effectively. Detroit on the other hand is intentionally disruptive and also like to gum things up. Similar formations but very different playing styles. In both games the Legion recovered from shaky starts and was also its typical self in playing a strong second half. The team needs to get beyond that initial uncertainty and start playing a full 90 minutes every game; otherwise it will find itself chasing from behind on a regular basis.