Week 28 Preview: all you need to know

Wednesday’s big home win not only saw the Three Sparks jump to 5th in the Eastern Conference, it also made the playoff race even tighter than it already was. Detroit City in 4th are only 4 points ahead of the Pittsburgh Riverhounds in 8th. North Carolina in 10th are only another 2 points back of Pittsburgh, and even Hartford Athletic in 11th are only another 2 points behind NC. On top of all that, the Tampa Bay Rowdies are only 4 points in front of Detroit. Confused? You should be.

The most important part

The Three Sparks are looking rather better now than just two weeks ago. Tyler Pasher and Diba Nwegbo are back and a true 9 is on the roster in the form of Darwin Matheus. Darwin wasn’t in the gameday roster Wednesday but my guess is he will be Saturday against Loudoun United (6:00pm, ESPN+). And the Legion also rediscovered how to score, although the shooting numbers were still low, albeit against a 3-man defense, which has caused the team problems this year. A good way to start the final stretch and put a home playoff spot in sight. With the right results this weekend, that could happen.

It’s been a while since the reverse fixture, which saw a 3-1 Legion win at home April 7th. They have been a much-improved team and until last week were above the playoff line. A 0-1 loss to Louisville City combined with a 2-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds win saw them slip. Losing that narrowly to Lou City looks like a decent result but they did not play well in that game at all. They also lost 0-1 to Phoenix Rising the prior week and have just 1 win in the last 5 games: 2-0 over Tampa Bay. Interesting.

Obviously, even though Pittsburgh has played 2 additional games they will be anxious to reclaim that playoff spot. They can do that this week but the tiebreakers involved are complex. Moreover, including this game they have to play all four teams directly above them yet this season. Messy, but it creates multiple opportunities.

They have a number of scoring options to do it with as well. They have four players with 5 or more goals: Zach Ryan (9), Wesley Leggett (7), Khalil ElMedkhar and Abdellatif Aboukoura (5 each). Hugo Fauroux in goal is also pretty damn good, with 8 clean sheets so far. That’s 1 more than all Legion keepers combined. They are not going to go down easy.

Prediction: All that being said, I think the Three Sparks should be feeling reenergized and ready to keep the playoff push going. 3 points for the good guys to complete a satisfying week.

Best of the rest

At this stage, with the Eastern Conference so tightly packed, there are very few games of no consequence. Here are the big ones to keep an eye on. All games are Saturday.

Detroit City v. New Mexico United (6:00pm, CBS Sports Golazo Network)

Detroit is holding on to the last home playoff spot with a 1-point edge over the Legion on equal games. Indy is 2 points back with a game in hand. In their last three they lost to FC Tulsa and drew with Hartford and El Paso Locomotive. Not a great streak. New Mexico of course are way out in front of the entire Western field and are a tough out at best. Detroit holds the tiebreaker advantage over the Legion (PPG v. conference opponents), so the Legion needs a win to take 4th.
Best outcome: New Mexico win, pretty likely.

Indy Eleven v. El Paso Locomotive (6:00pm, ESPN+)

Indy’s slide down the standings continued last week with a 0-0 draw in Hartford. They have just two points from the last four games. They now sit a point behind the Legion and tied on points with Rhode Island, although they have a game in hand on both teams. El Paso of course are in the West’s cellar and have little chance of making the playoffs and seem to be enjoying the spoiler role with a 2-1-2 record over the last five. they could prove pesky to a squad that desperately needs a turnaround
Best outcome: El Paso win, unlikely.

Tampa Bay Rowdies v. Pittsburgh Riverhounds (6:30pm, ESPN+)

Another game with massive implications. Tampa Bay has been crashing even harder than Indy, with 4 losses in the last 5 and the only win being over Miami. Their defense is suffering badly, especially having lost Forrest Lasso and face a Riverhounds team that has finally figured out how to score and has also crossed the playoff line after a season-long absence. Pittsburgh is 3 points shy of the Legion and 2 of Indy and Rhody. They have played 28 games though, more than anyone else except Charleston or Memphis.
Best outcome: Tricky. Before Wednesday, a Tampa Bay win seemed like the best result here. A draw would be good now, leaving the Legion 3 points back with a win. A Pittsburgh win and a Legion win would make the difference 2 points.

Memphis 901 v. North Carolina FC (7:00pm, ESPN+)

North Carolina will be riding high after their comprehensive 5-0 win over Oakland. Just 2 points out of the playoffs, although they have Loudoun between them and the line, so they will be rooting for the Legion I suppose. Memphis were on a bye last week and their last result was a 1-3 loss to the surging Colorado Springs Switchbacks. They will have been watching the Oakland-NC film very closely.
Best outcome: Memphis win. Ugh. I’d make that 50/50.

Orange County v. Rhode Island (7:00pm, ESPN+)

This writer will actually be in the OC this weekend, but probably won’t make the game. Orange County have been pretty poor recently, going 0-4-1 in the last five games, including a 0-6 shellacking by the Charleston Battery. Rhode Island hit a slight bump in the road last week, losing 0-2 to Pittsburgh in a weak performance. Tied on points with Indy a point behind the Legion and just 2 behind Detroit they will be hungry for that home playoff spot and will not want a repeat of last weekend.
Best outcome: Orange County win, unlikely.

Back in the Old Country

Not much has happened in the Blues’ world this past week with the team’s game last weekend having been postponed. A major game is coming up soon, though. Not at the weekend – this one will be on Monday and it will be the home game against Wrexham (2:00pm, Paramount+). Shocker – it’s sold out. Wrexham are currently top of League One and that is the highest the club has been in 42 years. City are 4th, but only on tiebreakers and are just 3 points behind the leaders with a game in hand already. This is a don’t miss game.