Week 32 Preview: all you need to know

The playoff picture remains in quite a bit of confusion with just three weeks left in the regular season. As things stand, only Louisville City has iced its position, winning not just the Eastern Conference but the Players’ Shield as well. Elsewhere in the East, only the Charleston Battery have clinched a playoff spot and in fact are locked into the #2 spot. Only The™ Miami FC are out.

The West is somewhat clearer, with four spots having been locked up. New Mexico United, Sacramento Republic, the Las Vegas Lights and the Colorado Springs Switchbacks are all in, but only New Mexico has iced a home fixture. El Paso Locomotive finally got eliminated Wednesday, leaving seven teams fighting for four playoff spots.

Of the teams still in contention, everyone has three games left except the Tampa Bay Rowdies, Hartford Athletic and Monterey Bay Union. The Union have only 2 games remaining and are teetering on the edge of elimination. Tampa and Hartford both have four games left as a result of the postponement of their game due to Hurricane Helene. And the Rowdies’ remaining schedule is completely up in the air as after this week’s game in Louisville, all the games are home fixtures. After Helene and now Milton going right through the Tampa area things are very uncertain.

Also affecting games this week is the international window. Several teams have players called up for national team duty; you can see the full list here.

The most important part

Well, if we’re being realistic, the Legion’s chances of a home playoff game (in the first round at least) are pretty slim at this point, which means that this Sunday (5:00pm, ESPN+) will likely be the last chance to see them in action this year.

First, the good news. The Legion is 6-1-3 against Western teams (the only loss being the 0-3 result against Memphis 901). The Lights’ #1 goalkeeper, Raiko Arozarena, is on international duty with Cuba. Midfielder Edison Azcona is with the Dominican Republic, but he has only 3 games so far this year.

The bad news: Las Vegas is a very good team this year, at last. After 6 years of futility (not to mention all sorts of off-the-field headaches) the Lights have finally made it to the playoffs and are currently 3rd in the West with a decent shot at making it to 2nd. This is easily the toughest remaining game on the Three Sparks’ schedule, despite being at home. Or as a result of being at home, even.

That being said, they have stumbled a bit of late. They are 2-0-3 over the past five outings, winning over Sacramento Republic (a huge one, admittedly) and Phoenix Rising and drawing with FC Tulsa, Monterey Bay and Orange County. After this they end the season with a home game against the Oakland Roots (the Legion’s final opponent) and a trip to North Carolina (the Legion’s previous opponent. Odd that). They will want a full 9 points to close out the season for sure.

To do that they will be relying on Jamaican forward Khori Bennett (13 goals) and French midfielder Valentin Noël (9 goals). Both joined the team this year (from Charlotte Independence and Austin FC respectively) and have totally transformed the team’s on-field performance. They are both extremely dangerous. 

The loss of Arozarena could be a problem. His primary backup has been Nicholas Ammeter, but he has not been on the gameday squad for quite a while. Next up is Auston Wormell, previously with Tulsa. He has just 2 games under his belt so far this season and has allowed 5 goals (3 of them to Tulsa, amusingly). He hasn’t played since the second game of the year. All told the Lights do give up a fair few goals – 41 to date so they not invulnerable at the back anyway. That is a definite weakness to exploit.

The lineup is almost always a 4-4-2 with Bennett and Noël up top. Behind them in the midfield is perhaps most significantly Englishman Charlie Adams who was a major impact player at San Diego Loyal. At least they are;t running with a blasted 3-,man back line.

As for the Legion, well, injuries remain a huge issue. Being without Phanuel Kavita and AJ Paterson really hurt last week (although not getting two obvious PKs didn’t exactly help either). And Tyler Pasher exited a bit gimpy too. The team being famously tight-lipped, who knows what their availability is this weekend. Whatever the lineup, they need to maximize every asset they have.

Prediction: It’s a mystery. So, I have to go with a draw. And hope that Loudoun don’t win.

Best of the rest

The Legion game is the final game on the schedule this week, but there is one key game earlier on Sunday. All other games are Saturday.

Detroit City v. Indy Eleven (Saturday, 3:00pm, ESPN+)

Detroit’s win streak ended at 3 games with a 2-2 draw with the Battery. Hardly a bad result. Indy got a key win on Tuesday, 1-0 in Loudoun and are looking rather better than they have of late. Detroit is third and 7 points clear of the Legion; Indy is 5 points up. Detroit is more or less out of reach, but Indy has the Legion and the Rowdies yet to play.
Best outcome: Hate to say it but a Detroit win probably gives the Legion the better chance of a home playoff spot. 60/40.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds v. Charleston Battery (Saturday, 6:00pm, ESPN+)

As noted above Charleston has little to worry about other than staying in form and racking up Nick Markanich’s stats. The Riverhounds are flirting with missing the playoffs for the first time in the Bob Lilley era. They sit in 10th and are 3 points out of the playoffs. They got a big win last week, 4-0 over Miami, their best result in a while. After this though they have a crucial game at Loudoun before finishing at El Paso.
Best outcome: A Battery win. 70/30.

Hartford Athletic v. North Carolina (Saturday, 6:30pm, ESPN+)

Hartford’s playoff chances took a major hit last week with a 0-2 loss to Loudoun. They are 11th, five points out of the playoffs. They do have that extra game yet to play, but after this all three games are on the road at Tampa, Tulsa and Orange County. North Carolina are on a hot streak, as we know all too painfully but will be without goalscorer Oalex Anderson who has been called up by St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Why couldn’t that have been last week?
Best outcome: Tricky, probably a draw, but a Hartford win is almost as good. About 30/70 for the draw.

Louisville City v. Tampa Bay Rowdies (Saturday, 6:00pm, CBS Sports Golazo Network)

An easy call here. Louisville is writing itself into the history books and Tampa Bay is dropping about as fast as the Legion. The Rowdies are down to 5th now, albeit only by a point and with that game in hand. They have just 2 wins in the last 10 games, over Pittsburgh and Miami. In addition to that Hartford game they still have North Carolina and Indy to play. They could cause some serious confusion yet.
Best outcome: Lou City win, of course. 80/20.

Rhode Island v. Loudoun United (Sunday, 3:00pm, ESPN+)

An absolutely enormous game. Rhode Island is 6th, tied on points with Tampa and 1 point out of the home playoff spots. Even after beating Tampa 3-1 last week, the Rowdies have the tiebreaker edge as they won the previous game 4-1. If they want that home game a win here is vital; Charleston next week before finishing against Miami. Loudoun’s 0-1 home loss to Indy Tuesday kept them out of the playoffs but only by a point behind the Legion. That first-ever playoff game is now seriously at risk. Pittsburgh and Charleston yet to come in a very messy schedule.
Best outcome: Another tough call. A Loudoun win keeps the Legion’s home playoff chances alive but also endangers that playoff spot entirely. Even a draw could hurt. 40/60 for a Loudoun win.

Back in the Old Country

The Blues finally lost a game in league play, going down 0-1 in an upset loss at Charlton last Saturday. In doing so they failed to register a shot on target. Frustrations were taken out on Shrewsbury Town Tuesday with a 4-0 thrashing in the EFL Trophy. Even with the loss and Wrexham winning big, the Blues remain top of League One with a 2-point margin and a game still in hand.

The team will have another game in hand as this week’s match against Cambridge United has been postponed due to international callups. Three Blues players were called up, which apparently triggers an automatic postponement. Most annoying, as the game had been on the Paramount+ schedule for this week.