Diving Deep: what remains of the season

Usually in this series we look back at what happened in the last game, or in some cases the last two games. Not wanting to dwell on bad results, we are flipping the script and looking ahead to the last two games of the season (or for two teams, the last three games).

That being said, the loss to the Las Vegas Lights was bad news. Not only did it leave the Legion below the playoff line, it also eliminated the possibility of a home playoff game in the first round. The Three Sparks can now finish with a maximum of 48 points, currently good enough for 4th place.  But either Indy Eleven or the Tampa Bay Rowdies (who play each other) will finish with at least 49 points and so the Legion tops out at 5th place.

However, that does not exclude the possibility of a home game in later rounds. The USL Championship playoffs determine the home team in all rounds by the higher original seed (there is no reseeding). The games are therefore 1v8, 2v7, 3v6 and 4v5. 1v8 and 4v5 are one half of the bracket, 2v7 and 3v6 the other half. The only team then that cannot host a playoff game is the weaker of the two #8 seeds, assuming that both 8 seeds make it to the final. But both of them would have to do that entirely on the road for three games, a tough hill to climb especially starting with the #1 seed.

Even the #5 seeds have a tough time of it. If they get past the #4 seed (technically the closest game in the opening round) they then play the winner of the 1v8 game. And if the #1 seed gets through (which is likely, of course) they also have to hope the #2 and #3 seeds are also eliminated.

That being said, the Eastern Conference #1 seed was knocked off in the first round last year, Detroit City pulling off the upset 1-0 over the Pittsburgh Riverhounds. The #5 seed – Louisville City – beat Memphis 901 (1-1 and 5-4 on penalties) and so got to host Detroit in the next round (winning 4-0). So there is precedent. It should also be noted that the Legion was the #7 seed last year and beat Tampa Bay 3-0. And the ultimate champions, Phoenix Rising, were the #6 seed in the West.

So: what are the Legion’s chances of getting to the #5 seed? Well, that gets pretty complicated. The East still has only 1 team eliminated (The™ Miami FC). Four teams are tied on 42 points and Hartford Athletic are on 40 with a game in hand. Only three teams have clinched playoff spots (Louisville, the Charleston Battery and Detroit). Louisville as the Players’ Shield winner has locked up the top seed all the way to the final and Charleston has iced a home playoff in the first round. There are eight teams competing for five playoff spots and three teams competing for the last home playoff spot. It can’t get much tighter than that.

To better evaluate the situation, let’s look at what remains in the season for each team:

To explain: opponents listed in italics are teams still involved in this mess. Opponents listed in red are the home teams for that fixture, i.e., the team listed at the left is the road team. There is a twist to that though: the Tampa Bay-North Carolina game was supposed to be Tampa’s home game but got moved to Cary, NC due to the hurricanes. Tampa’s Indy and Hartford games are also scheduled for St. Petersburg but are currently up in the air. So what looked like a major home field advantage for the Rowdies down the stretch has very likely disappeared.

That’s especially good news for Hartford, who as bottom man on the totem pole were looking at three road games to try to get into the playoffs.

Now, as to how the 4 teams tied on points are separated the first three tiebreakers are: head-to-head points per game, head-to-head goal differential (which can’t be used if there are only two teams tied) and PPG against conference opponents. North Carolina comes out on top on the first tie-breaker and Legion at the bottom. Pittsburgh and Loudoun are tied on the first two but the Riverhounds get the nod on the third tiebreaker. That may change depending on the result of their head-to-head matchup this week, of course.

In total, there are 13 games to consider here; 8 games are against teams not involved in the brouhaha and 5 where teams are playing within this group. Enough to make your head spin.

Anyway, for the Legion to make it to 5th place, 48 points are needed (i.e., 2 wins), as Rhode Island holds the tiebreaker, having won both games in the season series. Rhode Island has to lose both its games. Additionally, Tampa Bay can earn no more than 2 points (Legion holds the tiebreaker). Everyone else has to drop a point except Hartford who must drop at least 2 points.

6th place is the same except Rhode Island’s results don’t matter.

7th place requires earning more points than anyone else from 7 to 11. 8th place is the same except for any one team. Since Pittsburgh and Loudoun play each other, that means at least 2 points if they draw and 4 points if either team wins.

What are the chances of any of this happening? Well, time for some more data. Here are the performances of each team over the last 5 games:

Well, that’s not great. The only good news here is that the Rowdies have been cratering lately. One win in the last 5 games (4 weeks ago over Pittsburgh) and just 7 points in the last 10 games (a win over Miami and a draw with Phoenix). Even Indy, who had been stumbling, look to have found their feet.

Another angle: how is each team’s strength of schedule? Take a look:

That’s a bit better, but not by much. Finally, we have our own proprietary algorithm, the Forge Factor, which we use to assess our power rankings. This includes a combination of the two data points above – last 5 games (on a staggered basis) and opponent PPG. Here’s how that turns out:

Rhode Island does so well here because they have to face Miami, who have a massively negative Forge Factor. That will surprise absolutely no one. Their other game is against Charleston, who have been taking it easy since clinching their #2 spot and have slipped in the rankings a bit. But here you see that the Three Spark’s remaining schedule is about as difficult as Hartford’s, albeit with one less game. But that of course is a big disadvantage for both Hartford and Tampa Bay who have to play at least one game on short rest. And play on the road except for that head-to-head game.

All is not lost then. Given that the schedule means that teams will be beating up on each other, it allows the Legion that much more room. And the season finale should also help: the Roots have just 1 point from their last 6 games, getting outscored 12-1. Yes, the Three Sparks are in a deep hole, but the light at the top is more than just a glimmer.